Reform UK deals crushing blow to Lib Dems with thumping by-election win ahead of local elections

The Sutton South East Ward by-election was held after the seat was left vacant following the death of Liberal Democrat Brian Spencer.

Reform candidate John Pinnington won the seat for Reform with 447 votes, gained 44.5 of the vote on a turnout of less than 17.7 per cent.

Matt Butterworth of Labour came in second with 364 votes, with David Smith, of the Liberal Democrats trailing in third place with 147 votes.

Melanie Lee, of the Conservatives, came in fourth with 46 votes, down 10.5 per cent on the last local election in 2022, according to Britain Elects.

Gaining from Lib Dems as well as the two main parties augurs well for Reform’s chances in upcoming elections.

The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK-wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Reform is in with a real chance of causing upsets.

Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera – Neath Port Talbot (South Wales)

One of Reform’s strongest areas according to national polling has been the South Wales Valleys including areas like Neath.

The Nowcast model is currently projecting the wider Westminster constituency the ward falls within (Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe) to remain Liberal Democrat with Reform and the Tories joint second.

However, the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency is an enormous patch that covers much of Mid Wales which has historically voted Conservative and Lib Dem.

The Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera ward falls in the far south-west dogleg of the patch which stretches into once industrial South Wales Valleys.

In these areas Reform enjoys huge support. In a recent election for the ward of Trevethin and Penygarn (Torfaen), one of the safest Labour areas in Britain, Reform triumphed with an astounding 47 per cent of the vote.

Labour came second with 26.6 per cent of the vote in a humiliating blow to Starmer’s party.

The Neath and Swansea East constituency next door to Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera is much more representative of the ward and is projected to go to Reform by the Nowcast model.

Farage’s party is expected to take the seat from Labour, reversing the 6,627-vote winning margin Labour won in July 2024.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe projection

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe projection

ElectionMapsUK

Neath and Swansea East projection

Neath and Swansea East projection

ElectionMapsUK

Park – Lincoln (East Midlands)

Another ripe opportunity for Reform comes in the by-election for the Park ward in southern Lincoln.

The city of Lincoln has historically been a swing seat between Labour and the Conservatives, but Reform UK almost pipped the Tories into second in July 2024.

The Nowcast model is projecting a tight race between Reform and Labour for the wider Westminster seat, with the former on 28.5 per cent and the latter on 34.2 per cent.

To the south (Sleaford and North Hykeham) and north (Gainsborough), the Conservatives and Reform are neck and neck.

The presence of a Green and a Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition candidate makes the seat harder to predict.

Lincoln projection

Lincoln projection

ElectionMapsUK

Sutton South East – St Helens (Lancashire)

The last opportunity for Farage’s party comes in St Helens near Liverpool in Lancashire.

It is a tough ask as the area around Liverpool is traditionally a very safe Labour seat, but Reform UK did come second in the wider Westminster seat of St Helens South and Whiston.

The Nowcast model isn’t projecting Reform to overturn the 11,945-vote majority Labour won in July 2024, but it does show Reform closing in.

Their projected 29.5 per cent of the vote is up 11.5 per cent while Labour’s projected vote share of 39.2 per cent is down 10.5 per cent.

However, Sutton South East is actually a Liberal Democrat defence after Ed Davey’s party won 49 per cent of the vote last time out in 2022.

With Labour floundering in the polls, the Liberal Democrats will likely defend the seat with Reform second.

St Helens South and Whiston projection

St Helens South and Whiston projection

ElectionMapsUK

It comes after Labour dropped another three points in More In Common’s most recent national poll.

Yesterday the pollsters put the Conservatives first on 26% (+1), Reform second on 25% and Labour third on 21% (-3).

The poll blow comes as Labour continues to be punished at council by-elections since the July General Election.

Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 38 seats since July, with the Tories up 24 seats.

Reform UK, for all their dominant polling and headlines, has only won 12 seats (up 12), inviting criticism that they shout the loudest but aren’t producing results.

However, defenders of Reform argue the party has only just professionalised and began from a standing start in terms of candidate recruitment, vetting, membership lists etc.

Reform will be chomping at the bit to record some more electoral victories and prove they are a force to be reckoned with to the establishment parties.

A total of 1,641 councillors will be elected in May to 23 authorities including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, and one metropolitan borough.

Of these 23 authorities, 15 are being defended by the Conservative Party compared to just one for Labour, whilst seven councils are under no overall control (NOC).

Of these seven, four are run by Conservative minority administrations, two by Liberal Democrats, and one by Independents.

Latest Electoral Calculus polling projects the Tories to win 548 councillors in May, an estimated net loss of 390 councillors.

It also shows Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats capitalising on Tory losses.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is tipped to win 474 councillors, scooping 25 per cent of the vote, while Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are set to win 270 councillors and 16 per cent of the vote.