GB News has crunched the latest polling data from Survation, which has Reform UK on track to crush Labour’s so-called Red Wall – and found a further headache for Keir Starmer.
The poll of 2,032 adults, released earlier this week, has the insurgent party sweeping Labour’s traditional heartland if a general election was held tomorrow, with support in the North and Midlands up 12 per cent since July 4.
The Survation poll of 2,032 adults also found that 68 per cent of people polled thought Britain was “broken” – a win for Farage as his party has proven adept at galvanising disillusioned voters.
The polling data hints at further problems for Starmer as this pessimism is particularly pronounced on the issue of immigration (see chart below).
When pollsters asked Red Wall voters which policy area needs the most radical reform, immigration came out on top (32 per cent)
Survation
When pollsters asked Red Wall voters which policy area needs the most radical reform, immigration came out on top (32 per cent), followed closely by the NHS (31 per cent), with the economy trailing in third.
This should concentrate minds in Westminster as polling consistently shows getting tough on immigration is Reform’s main appeal to the electorate.
For example, a YouGov poll conducted in January for The Times found that Reform was the most favoured party to handle immigration, surpassing both Labour and the Conservatives.
In a separate Opinium poll released in February, 72 per cent of potential Reform voters cited immigration and border policies as their main motivation.
When pollsters asked Red Wall voters who they trust the most to handle the issue of immigration, Farage was the clear winner on 37 per cent followed by Starmer on 19 per cent.
Although this presents a clear opportunity for the insurgent party, the polling data shows that doubling down on this issue carries risks, too.
Given that it was a coin toss between the NHS and immigration as the area most in need of reform, the fact that the Prime Minister had a clear lead over Farage (30 per cent to 25 per cent) on the former shows that Labour’s heartland could still tilt red.
Furthermore, the impact of turning the Red Wall turquoise blue could prove negligible come election time as the traditional Labour voters who left the party en masse in 2019 have not returned – they simply went to other parties, explains elections guru John Curtice.
When Red Wall voters were asked who they trust the most to handle the issue of immigration, Farage was the clear winner
Survation
Also, “Labour for the most part are not concerned about migration and for the most part are in favour of reversing the Brexit decision”, he told GB News.
Herein lies the delicate balancing act for Reform: if it becomes a single-issue party, it will alienate moderate voters. Yet, if it dilutes its messaging, it could lose its base, Curtice points out.
All things considered, polling suggests it would be wise for the party to develop a more diverse set of policies if it’s going to supplant the Conservatives as the main opposition party.
A recent YouGov poll found 38 per cent of those currently considering voting Reform UK say they would also consider voting for Kemi Badenoch’s party.
