Is Britain ready for the return of Boris Johnson?
When one new MP mentioned recently that the ex-prime minister was planning to give up his lucrative new life to return to politics, I was sceptical.
But then another, very well connected, Westminster veteran of a different political disposition, spontaneously brought up a Johnson comeback soon after.
“Boris thinks he can be the British 45th and 47th,” my source insisted – referring to Trump’s positions in the list of US presidents.
“He has been turning up to lots of events and meetings. It’s been noticed. He wants to come back.
“He has also always looked at Churchill and is waiting for his moment.”
Despite being the most electorally successful Tory leader since Thatcher, the chaotic end to his premiership should make a return impossible.
Johnson quit before a Commons investigation into so-called partygate was published.
Always “pro-cake and pro-eating it”, the one time the former premier did not indulge in a slice of sponge – at the start of a meeting in No 10 during covid – proved to be the beginning of his downfall.
Johnson was fined by police because the drinks and nibbles laid out in the Cabinet room to be scoffed to mark his 56th birthday before official business began were deemed to make it a party.
Details of Johnson’s missteps as well as covid rule-breaking by staff were steadily leaked until he was left so badly weakened that minor incidents became major ones and major ones proved terminal.
Political terrorist Dominic Cummings, once the most powerful behind-the-scenes figure in the Johnson operation, has now claimed responsibility for the string of orchestrated attacks.
But Trump’s political resurrection shows how blind fury among one group of voters is no bar to success.
The more the celebrity world panicked over the possibility of his election, the more ordinary voters rallied behind him.
Scandals, many and varied, did little to stop his return to the White House in defiance of all the standard political conventions.
While Johnson and Trump are not political soulmates, both men operate outside of the norms.
They know how to capture the public’s attention and embody the public mood. Trump’s return to power has shown it can be done.
Intriguingly, when asked about the possibility of a comeback, Johnson’s camp responded that he was “very busy writing his latest book” – very much not a denial.
The practical obstacles to a return are huge. Kemi Badenoch is highly unlikely to allow any of the few prized Tory seats that become vacant under her leadership to be snapped up by the man she helped to get rid of.
Supportive former MPs and new blood in the party will be prioritised in any by-election.
At the moment, Tories seem to be content to sit back, exhausted from their brutal defeat.
Those that have hung onto their seats are grateful to have survived and think it cannot get much worse. Those who lost are still coming to terms with what happened.
But the most important rule in politics is ‘adapt or die’. While the Conservatives are in a Victorian-style period of mourning, Nigel Farage is learning lessons from Gen Z about how to expand Reform UK’s appeal.
Although Labour has cancelled many of this May’s local elections, Farage’s party are planning to go hard in the areas where votes will still be held.
Even if it is a disaster for the Tories, it is still far too early to pick up the phone to Johnson and there is no appetite at the moment in the party for his return.
But the ex-PM is the ultimate embodiment of the adapt or die mantra. He won London against the odds by appealing to metropolitan voters, then took the Red Wall by appealing to Labour’s heartlands.
Last week (Feb 12), he appeared at the World Governments Summit, where he warned the Conservatives they will not make themselves more attractive to voters if they try to “glomp on monkey glands” or “cannibalise the strength” of Reform.
Pointedly, he insisted Farage’s party was on “zero per cent when I was running the show”. Now Reform is on 27%.
Johnson’s return is unlikely but not impossible. If Reform’s ratings keep rising, there may come a point when the phone of the man who has been proven to keep them at bay before starts to ring.
